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The forecast of the European Central Bank assumes that the oil price will be $81.8 per barrel in 2024, $71.8 per barrel in 2025, $70.1 per barrel in 2026 and $69.2 per barrel in 2027.European Central Bank President Lagarde: The neutral interest rate may be slightly higher than before. European Central Bank President Lagarde said that as it gradually approaches the neutral interest rate, it will further discuss its related issues. The neutral interest rate may be slightly higher than before, and will be discussed in due course.Trump reiterates tax cuts.

Brazilian Presidential Spokesman: President Lula will run for re-election in 2026.Market News: Hungarian Prime Minister Orban and Turkish President Erdogan discuss US sanctions against Gazprom.Market News: Ibrahim Karin, Director of Turkish Intelligence Agency, has arrived in the Syrian capital.

Lou Feipeng, a researcher at the Postal Savings Bank: Strengthen the prevention and resolution of risks in the fields of real estate and small and medium-sized financial institutions. Lou Feipeng, a researcher at the Postal Savings Bank, told reporters that it is necessary to strengthen the prevention and resolution of risks in the real estate field and small and medium-sized financial institutions under the circumstances that a clear plan has been issued for the resolution of local government debt risks and targeted measures have been taken. (SSE)The concept of cryptocurrency in US stocks strengthened collectively at the beginning of the session, with Hut 8 and Riot Platforms rising by more than 8%, Bitdeer rising by more than 6%, TeraWulf and CleanSpark rising by more than 3%. In the news, US President-elect Trump announced that he would do some great things in the field of cryptocurrency.Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities: Improving deficit ratio's firm determination to release the central government to stabilize the economy is conducive to stabilizing expectations. The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to implement a more active fiscal policy. Improve the fiscal deficit ratio, and ensure that the fiscal policy will continue to exert more efforts. Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities, said that the fiscal policy continued the general tone of "positive", which reflected the stability and continuity of the policy, but emphasized "more positive", which was mainly reflected in the increase of deficit ratio and the scale of special bonds and ultra-long-term special government bonds. It is expected that the scale of fiscal expenditure will be significantly increased and the growth rate of fiscal expenditure will be increased next year. The generalized deficit ratio probability in 2025 is higher than that in 2024. In his view, the narrow sense of deficit ratio has a high probability of exceeding 3%, and the improvement of deficit ratio has special significance, which can achieve triple effects. First, the increase in deficit ratio means a further increase in the deficit scale, which is conducive to expanding expenditure, strengthening the ability of fiscal countercyclical adjustment, better preventing risks, benefiting people's livelihood and stabilizing growth. Second, deficit ratio is different from other financial instruments, and the public pays great attention to deficit ratio and its changes. Therefore, fiscal policy should use limited "bullets" to stabilize expectations, and the same fiscal stimulus scale should be reflected in deficit ratio as much as possible. Deficit ratio can better convey policy intentions and has strong policy signal significance; Improving deficit ratio's firm determination to release the central government to stabilize the economy is conducive to stabilizing expectations. Third, the high probability of deficit is still dominated by central government bonds. The form of transfer payment can better ensure the stability of grassroots financial resources and increase the disposable degree of local financial resources, which is conducive to the local government's "three guarantees" work. (SSE)